▲ Theoretical model
Roster valuation, trade ideas and game theory is theoretical analysis built on a deterministic simulated schedule — not real results. Real scores, clocks and fixtures appear only where the Live data badge is shown.
Boston Celtics · roster & trades
Team
Closed league — Boston Celtics can only trade with the 29 other NBA teams. No cross-sport or cross-league moves exist.
Roster
12 players · 60.8 wins-equivalent · $211.4m payroll| Player | Pos | Age | Value | Off | Def | Avail | Salary | Trade val | Moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Marchetti Star | PG | 28 | 17.1 | 99 | 94 | 45% | $59.2m | 95 | Roster strength, Underlying performance |
| Diego Halloran Starter | SG | 31 | 12.8 | 99 | 79 | 40% | $37m | 76 | Offense, Results, Momentum |
| Amir Adeyemi Starter | SF | 32 | 9.4 | 77 | 88 | 51% | $35.4m | 58 | Defense, Stability |
| Arun Beckford Starter | C | 32 | 5.1 | 63 | 75 | 71% | $13.1m | 48 | Defense, Stability |
| Hugo Okafor Starter | PF | 25 | 4.9 | 77 | 58 | 42% | $19.8m | 43 | Offense, Results, Momentum |
| Jamal Costa Rotation | SG | 30 | 3.2 | 64 | 62 | 65% | $15.6m | 33 | Roster strength, Underlying performance |
| Mateo Vasquez Rotation | SF | 27 | 3.0 | 67 | 57 | 38% | $12.3m | 31 | Offense, Results, Momentum |
| Isaac Novak Rotation | PF | 32 | 1.9 | 62 | 55 | 65% | $7.8m | 29 | Roster strength, Underlying performance |
| Tomas Pratt Depth | C | 30 | 1.6 | 61 | 54 | 40% | $5.2m | 22 | Roster strength, Underlying performance |
| Luka Oyelaran Depth | PG | 23 | 0.7 | 45 | 65 | 53% | $2.3m | 33 | Defense, Stability |
| Rashid Kowalski Depth | SF | 33 | 0.7 | 57 | 53 | 61% | $2.6m | 23 | Roster strength, Underlying performance |
| Theo Doherty Depth | C | 28 | 0.4 | 57 | 51 | 76% | $1.1m | 29 | Roster strength, Underlying performance |
Trade market — what is actually available
Trade with New York Knicks
Likelihood31%
We receive
Leon Petrov · SF · 10.0 val · $38.2m
We send
Jamal Costa · SG · 3.2 val · $15.6m
Isaac Novak · PF · 1.9 val · $7.8m
Tomas Pratt · C · 1.6 val · $5.2m
Rashid Kowalski · SF · 0.7 val · $2.6m
Theo Doherty · C · 0.4 val · $1.1m
Arun Beckford · C · 5.1 val · $13.1m
Net value to us -2.9To them +3Salary $-7.2mFills AvailabilityLeverage Balanced
Projected CSP impact
Availability: 45 → 37
Roster strength: 99 → 99
Payoff matrix (wins-equivalent)
| Both accept | -2.9 | +3 |
| We accept, they hold | -0.2 | +1 |
| We hold, they accept | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| Both hold | +0 | +0 |
- Zone of agreement — none at these terms. Holding weakly dominates for at least one side, so no deal is the equilibrium unless a sweetener (pick, cash, salary absorption) shifts the payoffs.
- Our walk-away — We only improve if the package returns more than 12.9 wins-equivalent; below that, holding is better. Stand pat at TPI 109.5 and buy the same profile in the offseason at a worse price.
- Their walk-away — NYK needs stability help worth at least 8 to justify losing Leon Petrov. NYK holds at TPI 110.5 and re-opens talks with a rival bidder.
- Why they might refuse — NYK is under high strategic pressure and losing Leon Petrov costs them roster strength, the dimension their own thesis leans on.
Trade with Utah Jazz
Likelihood24%
We receive
Nikola Solano · SG · 5.8 val · $26.2m
We send
Jamal Costa · SG · 3.2 val · $15.6m
Isaac Novak · PF · 1.9 val · $7.8m
Tomas Pratt · C · 1.6 val · $5.2m
Net value to us -0.9To them -0.1Salary $-2.4mFills AvailabilityLeverage Theirs
Projected CSP impact
Availability: 45 → 43
Roster strength: 99 → 99
Payoff matrix (wins-equivalent)
| Both accept | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| We accept, they hold | -0.2 | +0 |
| We hold, they accept | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Both hold | +0 | +0 |
- Zone of agreement — none at these terms. Holding weakly dominates for at least one side, so no deal is the equilibrium unless a sweetener (pick, cash, salary absorption) shifts the payoffs.
- Our walk-away — We only improve if the package returns more than 6.7 wins-equivalent; below that, holding is better. Stand pat at TPI 109.5 and buy the same profile in the offseason at a worse price.
- Their walk-away — UTA needs stability help worth at least 4.6 to justify losing Nikola Solano. UTA holds at TPI 103 and re-opens talks with a rival bidder.
- Why they might refuse — UTA is under high strategic pressure and losing Nikola Solano costs them defense, the dimension their own thesis leans on.
Trade with Milwaukee Bucks
Likelihood16%
We receive
Bruno Lindqvist · SF · 5.6 val · $16.5m
We send
Jamal Costa · SG · 3.2 val · $15.6m
Isaac Novak · PF · 1.9 val · $7.8m
Tomas Pratt · C · 1.6 val · $5.2m
Net value to us -1.1To them +2.8Salary $-12.1mFills AvailabilityLeverage Theirs
Projected CSP impact
Availability: 45 → 42
Roster strength: 99 → 99
Payoff matrix (wins-equivalent)
| Both accept | -1.1 | +2.8 |
| We accept, they hold | -0.2 | +1 |
| We hold, they accept | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Both hold | +0 | +0 |
- Zone of agreement — none at these terms. Holding weakly dominates for at least one side, so no deal is the equilibrium unless a sweetener (pick, cash, salary absorption) shifts the payoffs.
- Our walk-away — We only improve if the package returns more than 6.7 wins-equivalent; below that, holding is better. Stand pat at TPI 109.5 and buy the same profile in the offseason at a worse price.
- Their walk-away — MIL needs underlying performance help worth at least 4.5 to justify losing Bruno Lindqvist. MIL holds at TPI 101.2 and re-opens talks with a rival bidder.
- Why they might refuse — MIL is under high strategic pressure and losing Bruno Lindqvist costs them offense, the dimension their own thesis leans on.
Trade with Philadelphia 76ers
Likelihood23%
We receive
Rashid Kowalski · SG · 4.8 val · $21.8m
We send
Jamal Costa · SG · 3.2 val · $15.6m
Isaac Novak · PF · 1.9 val · $7.8m
Net value to us -0.3To them -0.5Salary $-1.6mFills AvailabilityLeverage Theirs
Projected CSP impact
Availability: 45 → 44
Roster strength: 99 → 99
Payoff matrix (wins-equivalent)
| Both accept | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| We accept, they hold | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| We hold, they accept | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Both hold | +0 | +0 |
- Zone of agreement — none at these terms. Holding weakly dominates for at least one side, so no deal is the equilibrium unless a sweetener (pick, cash, salary absorption) shifts the payoffs.
- Our walk-away — We only improve if the package returns more than 5.1 wins-equivalent; below that, holding is better. Stand pat at TPI 109.5 and buy the same profile in the offseason at a worse price.
- Their walk-away — PHI needs offense help worth at least 3.8 to justify losing Rashid Kowalski. PHI holds at TPI 101.1 and re-opens talks with a rival bidder.
- Why they might refuse — PHI is under high strategic pressure and losing Rashid Kowalski costs them offense, the dimension their own thesis leans on.
Needs
Weakest CSP dimensions — cheapest wins to buy- Availability45
26 points below this roster's own average — the cheapest place to buy wins.
- Defense61
10 points below this roster's own average — the cheapest place to buy wins.
- Offense62
9 points below this roster's own average — the cheapest place to buy wins.
Surplus
Strongest dimensions — most sellable assets- Roster strength99
28 points above average — the asset most likely to be worth more elsewhere.
- Underlying performance87
16 points above average — the asset most likely to be worth more elsewhere.
- Strategic position83
12 points above average — the asset most likely to be worth more elsewhere.
Completed trades
What happened to the curve afterwards- Dec 29 · NOPHigh confidencein Hugo Kaur · out Hugo Okafor
Performance rose 1.6 points in the 12 games after the deal — consistent with the added value, though schedule also eased.
- Sep 8 · PORMedium confidencein Finn Marchetti · out Jamal Costa
Performance rose 4.2 points in the 12 games after the deal — consistent with the added value, though schedule also eased.
- Dec 3 · HOUHigh confidencein Ravi Nakamura · out Mateo Vasquez
Performance fell 6.1 points afterwards. The deal is not established as the cause; fit and minutes moved at the same time.