▲ Theoretical model

Long-term trajectory and regime history is theoretical analysis built on a deterministic simulated schedule — not real results. Real scores, clocks and fixtures appear only where the Live data badge is shown.

Golden State Warriors — long-term trajectory

October 2024 → February 2026 · scroll the chart to zoom, drag to pan, click a point to explain it.

PerformanceFundamentalsExpectations

Era windowPeak 115.4 (December 2024) · Trough 88.5 (March 2025)

Regime transitions

Feb 10, 2025 — Emerging → Stable
20-game mean TPI 105.8 with σ 4.1 crossed the stable threshold.
Mar 22, 2025 — Stable → Declining
20-game mean TPI 97.5 with σ 4.2 crossed the declining threshold.
Sep 20, 2025 — Declining → Stable
20-game mean TPI 98.1 with σ 2.9 crossed the stable threshold.
Dec 25, 2025 — Stable → Declining
20-game mean TPI 97.9 with σ 4 crossed the declining threshold.

What each catalyst actually changed

Date	Event	Expectations	Fundamentals	Next 8 games
Nov 15, 2024	Starter injury	-0.4	+0.7	→ 0.3
Jan 1, 2025	Trade completed	-1.7	+0.6	↓ 5.1
Feb 14, 2025	Coaching / system change	-3.6	-0.2	↓ 4.6
Mar 26, 2025	Return from injury	+3.8	+0.8	↑ 4
Sep 12, 2025	Signing	+0.7	-1	↑ 4.3
Oct 13, 2025	Starter injury	+1.6	+0	→ 1.3
Dec 5, 2025	Trade completed	-4.4	+0.4	↓ 7.4
Jan 8, 2026	Playoff qualification	+5	-0.3	↑ 6.6

Where this era sits

33%

Current strength is higher than this share of Golden State Warriors's own recorded history. Peaks and troughs above are measured inside the selected window.

Catalysts

GSW — playoff qualification affecting the rotation (simulated event).
Change in expectations+5
Change in fundamentals-0.3
Subsequent performance+6.6
Unknown · High confidence
Insufficient evidence to classify persistence yet.

Historical analogue

Golden State's current combination of performance, fundamentals and volatility most closely resembles its August 2025 state.

Performance then98.4

Fundamentals then101.8

Next 20 games+5

Similarity does not imply a similar outcome.